The online food delivery market in India is projected to touch Rs 2.12 trillion by 2030, capturing a 20 percent share of the overall food services market, according to the ‘How India Eats’ study by Bain & Company and Swiggy. The market is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18 percent over the next six years.
The study highlights a significant increase in the penetration of online food delivery services. From a mere 8 percent in 2019, it rose to 12 percent in 2023, representing a 2.8 times growth. This growth outpaces the larger food services market in India, which includes dining out and ordering in. Currently valued at Rs 5.5 trillion, the food services market is expected to grow at 10–12 percent annually over the next seven years, reaching Rs 9-10 trillion by 2030.
“The Indian food services market, especially food delivery, has witnessed buoyant growth over the last few years. Higher incomes, digitization, improved customer experience, and an inclination to try new experiences have all contributed to this growth,” said Rohit Kapoor, CEO, Food Marketplace, Swiggy.
Kapoor emphasized the potential for growth by comparing India’s restaurant density with that of China. “China has four times the number of restaurants per million urban population, as compared to India. This study highlights this headroom and suggests that the Indian food service market catering to middle- and higher-income segments will expand from Rs 4-5 trillion at present, to about Rs 10 trillion by 2030.”
He further explained the impact of restaurant density on delivery costs: “What affects the cost the most is how long the distance to deliver is. In China, because the density of restaurants is much higher, the delivery radius is very low. As this density goes up, it will bring down delivery costs.”
The report predicts faster growth in convenience-led formats such as quick service restaurants (QSRs) and cloud kitchens, which are expected to grow 40 percent faster than the overall market from 2023 to 2030. “By 2030, the market is poised to serve an additional 110 million customers, gradually shifting eating out from a special event into a convenient lifestyle,” said Navneet Chahal, Partner at Bain and Company and co-author of the report.
The addressable customer base for the Indian food services market is expected to grow from the current 320–340 million to approximately 430–450 million by 2030, supported by macroeconomic tailwinds including rapid urbanization and a rise in affluence. As of 2023, about 70 percent of food services consumption is concentrated in the top 50 cities and among upper-middle and high-income segments. However, incremental growth is expected to come from tier 2 cities and beyond.
Notably, Gen-Z and younger cohorts, who comprise 40 percent of consumption, show a higher propensity to eat out, a trend expected to grow further as their purchasing power increases. The report also noted that each customer, on average, orders more than three cuisines from over six restaurants on an online platform in a year, indicating Indian consumers’ desire for variety in their dining experiences.
Currently, eating out is considered a special event for Indian consumers, averaging five times per month. This frequency is expected to increase to 7–8 times by 2030, aligning with developed markets like the US and China, where eating out is convenience-led and the monthly frequency is 25–30 times.
